Hospet’s rainfall is not steadily declining. It is becoming increasingly unpredictable, with sharp swings between surplus and deficit years and a growing mismatch between when rain falls and when the region needs it. Hosapete taluk’s long-period annual normal is 703.8 mm, yet the taluk recorded 894 mm in 2020, 777 mm in 2021, 858 mm in 2022, 939.7 mm in 2024 and only 545.5 mm in 2025. The contrast between 2024 and 2025 alone was nearly 400 mm. In 2023, Vijayanagara district received just 338 mm against a normal of 643 mm, a 47 per cent deficit. The pattern has become even more severe in 2026. By 22 July, Vijayanagara had the largest rainfall deficit in Karnataka at 62 per cent, making it the state’s only district in the “large deficit” category. By August, the Karnataka cabinet had approved a ₹28.52 crore cloud seeding programme covering 178 taluks across 27 districts. The evidence does not point to Hospet simply getting less rain. It points to rainfall becoming more erratic, with large differences between years and increasing uncertainty over whether rain arrives during the months when farms, reservoirs and communities need it most.
The benchmark is 703.8 mm a year for Hosapete taluk and 643 mm for Vijayanagara district. For Hosapete, that annual rainfall is spread across three broad periods: roughly 100 mm during the pre-monsoon months from March to May, around 389 mm during the southwest monsoon from June to September, and about 155 mm during the northeast monsoon from October to December.
That seasonal split matters. Hospet lies on the leeward side of the Western Ghats and receives relatively limited rainfall compared with Karnataka’s western districts. The northeast monsoon therefore plays an important role in determining the final annual total. A weak October to December period can push an otherwise reasonable year into deficit, while a strong northeast monsoon can substantially compensate for a poor southwest monsoon.
The early 2020s were unusually favourable. In 2020, Hosapete taluk recorded 894 mm, about 27 per cent above its normal. The southwest monsoon alone produced 612 mm against an expected 446 mm, a 37 per cent surplus. The northeast monsoon contributed another 205 mm. Undivided Ballari district ended the year 33 per cent above normal.
In 2021, the year Vijayanagara became a separate district, Hosapete taluk recorded 777 mm and was classified as “normal”. Vijayanagara district as a whole ended the year 20 per cent above normal. The following year was even wetter. In 2022, Hosapete taluk received 858 mm and was classified as “excess”. Vijayanagara district recorded 927 mm, 44 per cent above normal.
Taken together, these years created the impression of a region receiving reasonably dependable rainfall. But the following year showed how quickly that picture could change.
Vijayanagara district received only 338 mm in 2023 against its 643 mm normal, a 47 per cent shortfall. Unlike a year in which one particular season fails, 2023 was weak across the board. Pre-monsoon rainfall was 36 per cent below normal, the southwest monsoon was 40 per cent below normal and the northeast monsoon was 74 per cent below normal. Neighbouring Ballari district performed even worse, ending the year 56 per cent below normal.
The significance of 2023 lies in how quickly conditions changed. Vijayanagara had recorded a 44 per cent surplus just one year earlier. Within a year, that surplus had turned into a 47 per cent deficit.
Rainfall swung sharply in the other direction again in 2024. Hosapete taluk recorded 939.7 mm, the strongest figure in the published series and 34 per cent above its normal. Hospet hobli itself recorded 881.3 mm. Vijayanagara district finished 19 per cent above normal, with the northeast monsoon making a particularly large contribution. It was 48 per cent above normal during that period.
But the recovery proved short-lived. In 2025, Hosapete taluk received only 545.5 mm, 22 per cent below normal.
The annual total, however, does not tell the full story. The timing of the rainfall was just as important. Across Vijayanagara district, pre-monsoon rainfall was 60 per cent above normal, while the southwest monsoon was 11 per cent below normal and the northeast monsoon was 44 per cent below normal.
In other words, the year began with unusually high rainfall, but the rainfall weakened during the periods when agriculture and water storage depend more heavily on sustained monsoon rainfall.
The difference between 2024 and 2025 is particularly striking. The taluk went from 939.7 mm to 545.5 mm in a single year, a difference of about 394 mm. That is roughly 56 per cent of Hosapete’s entire annual rainfall normal.
The current season has continued the pattern of instability, but with a much larger deficit. Between 1 June and 22 July 2026, Karnataka received 253 mm of rainfall against a normal of 392 mm, a 35 per cent deficit. Twenty-four of the state’s 31 districts were classified as deficient.
Vijayanagara was the worst-affected district, with rainfall 62 per cent below normal. It was the only district in Karnataka placed in the “large deficit” category at that point.
The statewide situation improved somewhat by 19 August after intense spells of rain over coastal Karnataka and the Malnad region. The statewide deficit narrowed to 31 per cent, although only two districts were recording normal rainfall.
The severity of the situation prompted the Karnataka government to approve a cloud seeding programme. Following the cabinet decision of 13 August, the Water Resources Department approved a 60-day programme involving 200 hours of aerial operations and covering 178 taluks across 27 districts. The programme was explicitly linked to the drought-like conditions during the 2026-27 water year.
For Hospet, the most important conclusion is not that rainfall is disappearing. The figures do not support that claim.
Instead, rainfall is becoming harder to predict.
A year such as 2024 can deliver nearly 940 mm, well above the annual normal. The following year can produce barely 545 mm. A district can move from a 44 per cent surplus in 2022 to a 47 per cent deficit in 2023. Rainfall that arrives early in the year does not necessarily provide the same agricultural or water-storage benefits as rainfall during the southwest monsoon.
The northeast monsoon makes this uncertainty even more important. It contributed strongly to the 2024 surplus, running 48 per cent above normal, but fell 44 per cent below normal in 2025.
For farmers, this makes sowing decisions harder. For reservoirs, it makes storage planning more difficult. For civic authorities, it makes water planning less predictable.
The northeast monsoon is still an important part of the 2026 rainfall equation. It normally contributes close to a quarter of Vijayanagara’s annual rainfall, meaning a strong October to December could still substantially change the year’s final total.
But the experience of the past several years suggests that the final annual number is no longer enough to describe Hospet’s rainfall reality.
The more important question is increasingly not how much rain will Hospet receive this year?
It is when will that rain arrive, and will it arrive when the region needs it?
Rainfall figures are from the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre’s annual rainfall reports for 2020 to 2025, published as open data by OpenCity. Taluk-level figures for Hosapete are published consistently from 2020 onward. For 2023, district-level figures for Vijayanagara are cited. Current-season figures for 2026 are based on KSNDMC data reported in July and August 2026.